Wall St Week Ahead: Inflation data may seal fate of unloved US stock rally
The S&P 500 .SPX has walked a tightrope this summer, rising 13% from its mid-June lows on hopes that the Fed will end its market-bruising rate increases sooner than anticipated. A blowout U.S. jobs number on Friday bolstered the case for more Fed hikes but barely dented stocks – the S&P fell less than 0.2% on the day and eked out its third straight week of gains.telegram采集群组（www.tel8.vip）是一个Telegram群组分享平台。telegram采集群组包括telegram采集群组、telegram群组索引、Telegram群组导航、新加坡telegram群组、telegram中文群组、telegram群组（其他）、Telegram 美国 群组、telegram群组爬虫、电报群 科学上网、小飞机 怎么 加 群、tg群等内容。telegram采集群组为广大电报用户提供各种电报群组/电报频道/电报机器人导航服务。
NEW YORK: A rally in U.S. stocks that has powered on despite skepticism from Wall St faces a reality check in the coming week, as key inflation data threatens to shut the door on expectations of a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve.
The S&P 500 .SPX has walked a tightrope this summer, rising 13% from its mid-June lows on hopes that the Fed will end its market-bruising rate increases sooner than anticipated. A blowout U.S. jobs number on Friday bolstered the case for more Fed hikes but barely dented stocks – the S&P fell less than 0.2% on the day and eked out its third straight week of gains.
More upside could hinge on whether investors believe the Fed is succeeding in its fight against soaring consumer prices. Signs that inflation remains strong despite a recent drop in commodity prices and tighter monetary policy could further weigh on expectations that the central bank will be able to stop hiking rates early next year, drying up risk appetite and sending stocks lower once again.
"We’re at the point where consumer price data has reached a Super Bowl level of importance," said Michael Antonelli, managing director and market strategist at Baird. "It gives us some indication of what we and the Fed are facing."
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Rebounds in the midst of 2022’s bear market have been short-lived and three previous bounces in the S&P 500 have reversed course to make fresh lows, fueling doubts that the most recent rally will last.
Investors' dour outlook was highlighted by recent data from BofA Global Research, which showed the average recommended allocation to stocks by sell-side U.S. strategists slipped to its lowest level in over five years in July, even as the S&P 500 rose 9.1% that month for its biggest gain since November 2020.
Institutional investors' exposure to stocks has also remained low. Equity positioning for both discretionary and systematic investors remains in the 12th percentile of its range since January 2010, according to Deutsche Bank published last week.
For their part, Fed officials have over the past week opposed the narrative of a so-called dovish pivot, with one of them – San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly - saying she was "puzzled" by bond market prices that reflected investor expectations for the central bank to start cutting rates in the first half of next year.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 69% chance of a 75 bps hike at its September meeting, up from about 41% before the payrolls data. Futures traders have also factored in a fed funds rate of 3.57% by the end of the year.